[datascience] I: Next seminar on Friday February 07 at 6 pm at Via Lucullo 11

["Gianluca Cubadda" < >]

Dear all,

Please be reminded that the next seminar will take place on Friday, February 07 at 6 pm at Tor Vergata's facilities in Via Lucullo 11, 00187 Rome.

Speaker: Julia Schaumburg, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

 

Title: Increased persistence of warm and wet winter weather in north-western Europe due to trends towards strongly positive NAO

Abstract: The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has seen a long-term trend towards strongly positive values over the last decades. Although this shift aligns with climate model projections under scenarios of strong greenhouse gas forcing, the observed changes exceed the range predicted by these models. While the relationship between the NAO and temperature or precipitation patterns is well-established, the shift’s impact on weather persistence remains unclear and may influence different parts of the temperature distribution and the probability of precipitation in distinct ways. We introduce statistical models to capture this distributional heterogeneity. When comparing 1950–1980 with 1990–2020, we find that both warm temperature and precipitation persistence have increased significantly in north-western Europe in winter. For precipitation, this implies that when the NAO index is strongly positive, the likelihood of over two weeks of precipitation within three weeks has roughly tripled over north-western Europe, strongly amplifying flood risk.

 

We look forward to seeing you there.

The Organizing Committee

Gianluca Cubadda
Massimo Franchi
Tommaso Proietti
Paolo Santucci de Magistris

 

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