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CEIS: CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC & INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Furio Camillo Rosati - Director "How Much is Too Much? A Methodological Investigation of the Literature on Alcohol Consumption" 
CEIS Working Paper No. 560 STEFANO CASTRIOTA, University of Pisa
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PAOLO FRUMENTO, University of Pisa - Department of Political Sciences
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FRANCESCO SUPPRESSA, University of Siena
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Until a few years ago, moderate alcohol consumption was thought to have (mild) beneficial effects on health. However, some recent studies have suggested that “there is no safe level” of alcohol intake. Consequently, public health institutions have responded by advising against any level of alcohol use and suggesting governments a number of policies to reduce the overall alcohol consumption. Nonetheless, medical studies suffer from a variety of methodological issues that could undermine the reliability of the findings, especially when focusing on low-intake levels. We apply a search algorithm to extract 19,981 Confidence Intervals (CIs) from 6,763 medical abstracts, and show the existence of a clear publication bias which appears to have even increased and not decreased, in recent years. Further, we assess the quality of a sample of articles, showing the presence of several limitations such as omitted variable bias, miscalculation of alcohol intake, use of linear in place of non-linear models, and lack of validation of Mendelian Randomization (MR) assumptions. We conclude that the methodological limitations of the literature preclude us from claiming that ”there is no safe level” of alcohol intake. "Are Anti-Federalism and Republicanism the Way Forward for a United States of Europe? Lessons from American History"
CEIS Working Paper No. 561 DANDAN HONG, Communication University of China
LORENZO PECCHI, University of Rome Tor Vergata
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GUSTAVO PIGA, University of Rome
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Today, the European Union (EU) and in particular its common currency area created in 1998, the Eurozone, is going through an economic crisis that, given its duration, can be defined as structural and enduring and is such as to put the common political project at risk. This article retraces the history of the United States of America with the purpose of studying what lessons and insights for European Union evolution can be learned from the original debate between Federalists and Anti-Federalists and from its repercussions on United States federal development to date. We also deal critically with some conflicting ideas about the organization and future of Europe and present some policy proposals to relaunch the European project based on some of the lessons learned from the history of the United States.
We argue that the intuitions of the Anti-Federalists and Republicans can guide us in defining a path for the future of Europe. Given the ultimately (partially) successful but gradual experience of the United States, we suggest that it is necessary to hand back to the EU member countries, after the repeated failures of the EU Stability and Growth Path and Fiscal Compact, full control of their fiscal policy to build a ‘light’ fiscal federalism. "Italy in the Great Divergence: What Can We Learn from Engel’s Law"
CEIS Working Paper No. 562 DAVID CHILOSI, King’s College London - Department of Political Economy
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CARLO CICCARELLI, University of Rome Tor Vergata - Faculty of Economics
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We estimate and internationally compare the evolution of GDP pc in central-northern and, for the first time, southern Italy in 1400-1861. To address concerns on the representativeness of daily wages, we rely on an unconventional demand approach, using a general equilibrium model and occupational data. Our estimates are consistent with an “industrious revolution” in the “long 18th century” (1650-1800). Central-northern Italy stagnated. Southern Italy, though poorer, was growing slowly. Our comparison suggests that the “great divergence” between Europe and Asia in the 18th century was rooted in contingent institutional developments, rather than persistent differences. | | ^top
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Harvard Business School, SSRN, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI), Harvard University - Accounting & Control Unit
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