if this message does not display correctly, click here | Table of Contents Erminia Florio, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Department of Economics and Finance Barbara Annicchiarico, University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Department of Economics and Finance, University of Rome Tor Vergata - Centre for International Studies on Economic Growth (CEIS)
Fabio Di Dio, European Union - JRC-Ispra, European Commision
Stefano Patri, University of Rome I Marco Alfò, Università degli Studi La Sapienza
Lorenzo Carbonari, UniversitĂ di Roma "Tor Vergata"
Giovanni Trovato, University of Rome Tor Vergata - Faculty of Economics | |
CEIS: CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC & INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Furio Camillo Rosati - Director "The Legacy of Historical Emigration: Evidence from Italian Municipalities" 
CEIS Working Paper No. 478 ERMINIA FLORIO, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Department of Economics and Finance
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I analyze the effect of historical emigration on today's attitudes towards immigration in Italy. To do so, I collect data on Italian emigrants by municipality from the Ellis Island archives in the period 1892-1924. I estimate, then, the causal effect of emigration on a series of outcomes used to measure attitudes towards immigrants through an IV strategy, by exploiting exogenous variation in proximity to train stations active during years 1892-1924 and in the timing of construction of stations to historical emigration. I find that emigration has a negative and significant long-run effect on attitudes towards immigration. In particular, a one-standard deviation increase in the share of past emigrants reduces the propensity to have a SPRAR in municipalities by roughly 9%. A higher historical emigration also reduces social expenditures, share of votes for center-left parties and non-profit organizations, while increasing the share of votes for center-right parties. "Optimal Correction of the Public Debt and Fiscal Resilience Measures"
CEIS Working Paper No. 479 BARBARA ANNICCHIARICO, University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Department of Economics and Finance, University of Rome Tor Vergata - Centre for International Studies on Economic Growth (CEIS)
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FABIO DI DIO, European Union - JRC-Ispra, European Commision
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STEFANO PATRI, University of Rome I
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This paper derives the optimal response of the primary budget surplus to changes in the debt-to-GDP ratio in a stochastic model of debt. Under the optimal solution the surplus reactivity to the debt-to-GDP ratio is independent of the debt ratio itself, but its size depends on economic fundamentals and on the degree of uncertainty surrounding the impact of fiscal policies. We propose two measures of fiscal resilience under the optimal control that may be used to gauge the soundness of a consolidation plan and as early warning indicators of fiscal imbalances. "On the Effects of Taxation on Growth: An Empirical Assessment"
CEIS Working Paper No. 480 MARCO ALFĂ’, UniversitĂ degli Studi La Sapienza
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LORENZO CARBONARI, UniversitĂ di Roma "Tor Vergata"
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GIOVANNI TROVATO, University of Rome Tor Vergata - Faculty of Economics
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Growth models predict that taxation may have permanent effects on per capita real GDP growth. We look at, and test this prediction for 21 OECD countries, over the period 1965-2010. We employ a semi-parametric technique - namely, a Finite Mixture model - to estimate an augmented version of the Barro (1990) model, in order to consider both direct and indirect effects of taxation on capital share parameters. The estimation technique allows to deal with unobserved heterogeneity and to perform a cluster analysis. Our results support the idea that taxes are generally harmful for growth. The coefficient estimates indicate that a cut in the corporate income tax rate by 10 % raises the GDP growth rate by 0.9% while a cut in the personal income tax rate by 10% raises the GDP growth rate by 1%. | | ^top
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