if this message does not display correctly, click here | Table of Contents Mariarosaria Comunale, Bank of Lithuania - Economics Department Daniela Vuri, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research) Carlo Ciccarelli, University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Faculty of Economics
J. Paul Elhorst, University of Groningen - Faculty of Economics and Business | |
CEIS: CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC & INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Vincenzo Atella - Director "Dutch Disease, Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignments And Their Effect on GDP Growth in the EU" 
CEIS Working Paper No. 379 MARIAROSARIA COMUNALE, Bank of Lithuania - Economics Department
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In this article we study the impact of real effective exchange rate misalignments, based on determinants, including different types of foreign capital inflows, on GDP growth in the EU. This can provide a useful contribution to understanding the causal link between inflows, real effective exchange rate disequilibria and GDP growth during both the boom and the crisis period. For this analysis, we use a panel of 27 EU countries for the period 1994–2012, with annual frequency.
We find that the core countries have been mostly undervalued from the crisis onwards, while the periphery (excluding Ireland) were overvalued starting from 2003–2004, as expected. Concerning the new Member States, these are persistently overvalued for the entire time span. The results seem to be generally driven by the inflows of banking loans more than by FDIs or portfolio investments.
In the second stage, we study the influence of exchange rate misalignments and volatilities on growth. We argue that the real effective exchange rate misalignments associated with the inflows have been a further cause for decline in GDP, in a long-run perspective, while they do not play a role in the short run. The exchange rate volatilities and the undervaluation dummy are not robust in affecting GDP growth, while spillovers and global factors seem to matter in all the specifications both in the short and long run. "Joint Custody Laws and Mother's Welfare: Evidence From the US"
CEIS Working Paper No. 380 DANIELA VURI, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)
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Recent research has focused on the consequences on the unilateral divorce laws on several aspects of individual behavior but the issue of children custody after divorce has been almost neglected. This paper studies the implications on mothers of the changes in child custody law from maternal preference to joint custody using the 1960-2000 Census Public Use Micro Sample (IPUMS). Variation in the timing of joint custody reforms across states provides a natural experimental framework to study the causal effect of shared custody on mothers' economic outcomes. We also study the heterogeneity of the effect according to the years of exposure and to the age of the child at the time of the reform. The results show that divorced/separated mothers are negatively affected by the adoption of the joint custody laws in terms of a decrease in total income and earnings, exposing them to a higher risk of poverty. The paper discusses a possible rationale for these findings in terms of higher child support payments the mother gets from the non custodial father in case of joint custody which might discourage them from looking for high paid jobs or investing in their careers. "A Spatial Diffusion Model with Common Factors and an Application to Cigarette Consumption"
CEIS Working Paper No. 381 CARLO CICCARELLI, University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Faculty of Economics
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J. PAUL ELHORST, University of Groningen - Faculty of Economics and Business
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This paper adopts a dynamic spatial panel data model with common factors to explain the non-stationary diffusion process of cigarette consumption across 69 Italian provinces over the period 1877-1913. The Pesaran (2015) CD-test and the exponent
-test of Bailey et al. (2015) are used to show that both weak and strong cross-sectional dependence are important drivers of the propagation of cigarette demand over this period. Stabilitytests on the coefficients and the CD-test on the residuals of the model are used to verify whether the data and both forms of cross-sectional dependence are modeled adequately. Cigarettes are found to be a normal good with an income elasticity of 0.4 and a price elasticity -0.4 in the long term. The price elasticity can be decomposed into a direct effect of -0.54 in the own region and a spillover effect to other regions of 0.15. This positive spillover effect is in line with previous spatial econometric studies which investigated cigarette demand in the U.S. states over a more recent period. | | ^top
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