CEIS-Tor Vergata is pleased to inform you that, on Friday November 14th, 2014 at 12.00 pm, Cesare Robotti (Imperial College) will present a paper on “Spurious Inference in Unidentified Asset-Pricing Models” ABSTRACT This paper studies some seemingly anomalous results that arise in possibly misspecified and unidentified linear asset-pricing models estimated by maximum likelihood and one-step generalized method of moments. Strikingly, when useless factors (that is, factors that are independent of the returns on the test assets) are present, the models exhibit perfect fit, as measured by the squared correlation between the model’s fitted expected returns and the average realized returns, and the tests for correct model specification have asymptotic power that is equal to the nominal size. In other words, applied researchers will erroneously conclude that the model is correctly specified even when the degree of misspecification is arbitrarily large. We also derive the highly non-standard limiting behavior of these invariant estimators and their t-tests in the presence of identification failure. These results reveal the spurious nature of inference as factors that are useless are selected with high probability, while factors that are useful are driven out from the model. The practical relevance of our findings is demonstrated using simulations and an empirical application. The Seminar will be held at the Faculty of Economics, University of Rome "Tor Vergata", B-building, 1° floor, room B Please, go to www.ceistorvergata.it for the complete list of seminars and events at CEIS. How to reach us: http://web.uniroma2.it/mobilita/index.html http://www.economia.uniroma2.it/area.asp?a=867 Barbara Piazzi __________ Informazioni da ESET NOD32 Antivirus, versione del database delle firme digitali 10701 (20141110) __________ Il messaggio è stato controllato da ESET NOD32 Antivirus. www.nod32.it |
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