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CEIS: CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC & INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Luigi Paganetto - President, Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo - Director "Climate Change Adaptation and Real Option Evaluation" 
CEIS Working Paper No. 232 PASQUALE L. SCANDIZZO, University of Rome
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This report illustrates the application of a (relatively) new method to guide decision making under high (and unknowable) levels of uncertainty. The approach allows for the identification of robust policy options that are economically beneficial under different scenarios and varying levels uncertainty. Option value techniques are commonly employed in the finance literature to identify investment decisions that are resilient across a spectrum of outcomes. The methods are technically advanced and conceptually complex but they can be applied with ease with the wide availability of specialized software.
The results of a pilot exercise conducted in Campeche suggest that even though global estimates for many costs have been used (such as sea wall construction) the magnitudes are so large that the results seem to be robust and are unlikely to alter dramatically with more refined data. In general options that are modular, build capacity and flexibility are found to lead to more robust and prudent adaptation options. It also suggests that studies at this scale are best conducted ahead of project design – even at the programmatic level - to guide the identification of suitable adaptation approaches. "Corporate Social Responsibility and Stock Market Effi
ciency"
CEIS Working Paper No. 233 LEONARDO BECCHETTI, University of Rome II - Faculty of Economics
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ROCCO CICIRETTI, University of Rome II - Department of Financial and Quantitative Economics
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ALESSANDRO GIOVANNELLI, University of Rome II
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We investigate the relationship between Corporate Social Responsibility (hereafter CSR) and I/B/E/S Details analysts' earnings per share (EPS) forecasts using a large sample of US firm forecasts for the 1997-2004 period. We show that the net difference between CSR strengths and weaknesses significantly reduces both the absolute earning forecast error and its standard deviation after controlling for standard regressors and year, industry, and firm/broker effects. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that reduced transaction costs (and conflicts) with stakeholders and more transparent accounting practices implied by CSR significantly affect the bias. The CSR effect is strongly asymmetric and mainly driven by CSR weaknesses, consistent with the fact that the predicted channels of influence are mainly captured by CSR weakness scores. A crucial aspect of our findings is that CSR contributes to make financial markets efficient as unbiasedness and efficiency are (in almost all specifications) not violated in the subsample of the top 20 percent (lowest CSR weaknesses) companies, while they are in the bottom 20 percent CSR companies. "Domestic Pigouvian Taxation and Technological Spillovers Under International Emissions Trading"
CEIS Working Paper No. 234 AMANDA SPISTO, University of Rome II
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I model an economy featuring two representative firms in two countries, one in each country, where one firm innovates and generates technological unilateral spillovers. I analyze a partial equilibrium model in two different scenarios: in the first one, the innovating firm is under a domestic emissions taxation, while the other country does not implement any environmental policy. Government of the innovating firm introduces a tax credit aimed at incentivizing investment in cleaner abatement technologies. Finally, in the second scenario, the two countries take part to an international ETS. Comparisons among results from different scenarios are shown in the analytical part of the study. I conclude that, under specific assumpitons, overlapping regulations might be welfare improving. | | ^top
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