if this message does not display correctly, click here | | |
CEIS: CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC & INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Marianna Brunetti - Director "The State-Dependent Consumption Response to Government Spending in US: A Markov-Switching TANK Model with Sticky Wages" 
CEIS Working Paper No. 606 FRANCESCO MORELLI, Link Campus University
Email:
">
This paper examines the effectiveness of public spending in different phases of the business cycle through a state-dependent macroeconomic model. We estimate a two-agent New-Keynesian (TANK) model with sticky wages in a Markov-switching framework for the U.S. economy (1960-2013). The model extends Galı, López-Salido, and Vallés 2007 by incorporating wage rigidity as in Colciago 2011. Our findings indicate that the share of hand-to-mouth agents (λ) plays a crucial role in determining fiscal multipliers, with higher λ values associated with recessions and stronger public spending effects. While monetary policy regime shifts influence outcomes, λ remains the key driver of multiplier heterogeneity. Our results suggest that temporary fiscal interventions during downturns yield the highest impact, reconciling elements of both neoclassical and New-Keynesian perspectives. These insights have important policy implications for the design of countercyclical fiscal policies. "When Fewer Bids Increase Competition: Buyer Surplus Enhancing Mergers in Single-Award Procurement Auctions"
CEIS Working Paper No. 607 GIAN LUIGI ALBANO, Consip SPA, LUISS "G. Carli", Department of Economics and Finance, Libera Universita Internazionale degli Studi Sociali
Email:
">
WALTER FERRARESE, Independent
Email:
">
ROBERTO PEZZUTO, University of Rome Tor Vergata - Department of Economics and Finance
Email:
">
We show that in a single-lot low-price auction, a merger can be simultaneously profitable and increase the buyer's surplus, even in the absence of cost synergies. Thus the buyer's purchasing price may go down even when a lower number of bids is submitted. In determining our main result we highlight the role of firms' cost exhibiting a discontinuity due to short-term capacity constraints or non-linear contractual agreements. The paper contributes to a new strand of literature showing that in bidding markets the lack of merger-induced synergies does not necessarily imply worse outcomes for the buyer. Hence the Authorities need not worry about resorting to possibly convoluted assessment of the attainability of this kind of efficiencies. "Identification, Estimation and Inference in High-Frequency Event Study Regressions"
CEIS Working Paper No. 608 ALESSANDRO CASINI, University of Rome Tor Vergata
Email:
">
ADAM MCCLOSKEY, University of Colorado at Boulder
Email:
">
We consider identification, estimation and inference in high-frequency event study regressions, which have been used widely in the recent macroeconomics, financial economics and political economy literatures. The high-frequency event study method regresses changes in an outcome variable on a measure of unexpected changes in a policy variable in a narrow time window around an event or a policy announcement (e.g., a 30-minute window around an FOMC announcement). We show that, contrary to popular belief, the narrow size of the window is not sufficient for identification. Rather, the population regression coefficient identifies a causal estimand when (i) the effect of the policy shock on the outcome does not depend on the other variables (separability) and (ii) the surprise component of the news or event dominates all other variables that are present in the event window (relative exogeneity). Technically, the latter condition requires the ratio between the variance of the policy shock and that of the other variables to be infinite in the event window. Under these conditions, we establish the causal meaning of the event study estimand corresponding to the regression coefficient and super-consistency of the event study estimator with rate of convergence faster than the parametric rate. We show the asymptotic normality of the estimator and propose bias-corrected inference. We also provide bounds on the worst-case bias and use them to quantify its impact on the worst-case coverage properties of confidence intervals, as well as to construct a bias-aware critical value. Notably, this standard linear regression estimator is robust to general forms of nonlinearity. We apply our results to Nakamura and Steinsson's (2018a) analysis of the real economic effects of monetary policy, providing a simple empirical procedure to analyze the extent to which the standard event study estimator adequately estimates causal effects of interest. | | ^top
About this eJournal Submissions To submit your research to SSRN, sign in to the SSRN User HeadQuarters, click the My Papers link on left menu and then the Start New Submission button at top of page. Distribution Services If your organization is interested in increasing readership for its research by starting a Research Paper Series, or sponsoring a Subject Matter eJournal, please email:
">
Distributed by Economics Research Network (ERN), a division of Social Science Electronic Publishing (SSEP) and Social Science Research Network (SSRN) | | | | | | Subscription Management You can change your journal subscriptions by logging into SSRN User HQ. Questions? Please visit the SSRN Support Center to access live chat assistance or use our email ticketing system. | | Site Subscription Membership Many university departments and other institutions have purchased site subscriptions covering all of the eJournals in a particular network. If you want to subscribe to any of the SSRN eJournals, you may be able to do so without charge by first checking to see if your institution currently has a site subscription. To do this please click on any of the following URLs. Instructions for joining the site are included on these pages. If your institution or department is not listed as a site, we would be happy to work with you to set one up. Please contact
">
for more information. | | Individual Membership (for those not covered by a site subscription) Join a site subscription, request a trial subscription, or purchase a subscription within the SSRN User HeadQuarters: https://hq.ssrn.com/Subscriptions.cfm | | Financial Hardship If you are undergoing financial hardship and believe you cannot pay for an eJournal, please send a detailed explanation to
">
| |
To ensure delivery of this eJournal, please add
">
(Economics Research Network) to your email contact list. Questions? Please visit the SSRN Support Center. FORWARDING & REDISTRIBUTION Subscriptions to the journal are for single users. You may forward a particular eJournal issue, or an excerpt from an issue, to an individual or individuals who might be interested in it. It is a violation of copyright to redistribute this eJournal on a recurring basis to another person or persons, without the permission of SSRN. For information about individual subscriptions and site subscriptions, please contact us at
">
| | Follow SSRN:
  Copyright © 2025 Elsevier, Inc. All Rights Reserved | |
|
